El Niño is here and scientists fear it'll be big, bad and costly

Jun 11, 2026 - 22:35

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El Nio, Nature's chaotic climate agent, has formed in a warmed-up Pacific Ocean and is expected to grow to historic strength, meteorologists announced Thursday.

Experts said the El Nio, a natural warming cycle, should further heat a globe already warming from fossil fuel pollution and will likely turbocharge extreme weather across the planet. Meteorologists forecast it will rival or exceed a record El Nio that began in 1997 and helped trigger billions of dollars in damage from heat waves, floods, droughts, tornadoes and wildfires.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officially confirmed the existence of the El Nio, which is a warming of the Pacific near the equator that affects weather patterns across the globe. NOAA's announcement said there's a 63% chance that the El Nio will get so intense this late fall and early winter that it "would rank among the largest El Nio events in the historical record going back to 1950."

The warm, deep waters of an El Nio affect weather patterns by bringing "a lot of extra heat to the surface, fueling a lot of extreme events for a lot of places around the world," said Clark University climate scientist Abby Frazier.

She said, especially in the Pacific, "it can get dire very quickly."

United Nations Secretary-General Antnio Guterres described El Nio as an "urgent climate warning."

"El Nio conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world," Guterres said in a video message.

The weather pattern's effects vary by region. El Nio often dampens but doesn't eliminate Atlantic hurricane season activity, but increases it in the Pacific. So while the U.S. East and Gulf coasts may get a break, Hawaii and other islands are more in danger, Frazier said.

The drought-stricken Middle East could benefit, climate scientists said. Other places are looking at more danger. Parts of western South America where the first El Nios were noticed decades ago often get heavy rain and floods, along with an extra warm summer. India faces more intense heat waves, while drought, wildfires and heat threaten Australia.

Northeastern Africa is likely going to get weather whiplash from intense drought to dangerously heavy rains, said Columbia University climate scientist and El Nio expert Muhammad Azhar Ehsan.

In the U.S., El Nios can cause more intense storms with heavier rainfall in the South, but they also tend to generally benefit the U.S. agriculture industry, said Jon Gottschalck, operational branch chief at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

Michael Ferrari, meteorologist and head of research at the investment research firm Moby, said conditions for grains and seed, especially soybeans, look favorable in 18 major growing states, but are more mixed when it comes to dairy and cattle.

The northern Rockies and Southwest where there's an "off the charts" snow drought could get some strong summer rains, Gottschalck said. The biggest effect in the U.S. is often in the winter, when the south can get wetter and the Pacific Northwest warmer and drier.

But overall, temperatures raised by the weather pattern can dampen American economic growth, said Stanford climate economist Marshall Burke. Several climate scientists forecast that 2027 will be the hottest year on record because of lagging effects of this El Nio, which is expected to peak in the fall or winter.

"We have pretty clear evidence that the U.S. economy grows more slowly when temps are above normal," Burke said.

The weather extremes caused by an El Nio also depend on when it develops.

Usually El Nios form in the summer, peak in the late fall or early winter, and peter out the next spring, scientists said.

However, Ehsan's team forecasts that this El Nio will peak a month or two earlier based on strong early signs from recent weeks. Princeton University climate scientist Gabriel Vecchi said large El Nios like these also tend to last longer.

The early indications including warmer water pushing toward the surface of the Pacific have been so strong and noticeable that forecasters have all been predicting the same ultra strong El Nio, Vecchi said, adding that El Nio forecasts often are all over the place at this time of year.

Scientists predict stronger El Nios as the world warms from the burning of coal, oil and gas, Frazier and others said. But she said it is too early to say if this El Nio is part of that.

Even before it officially formed, this El Nio has gotten nicknames ranging from "super" to "Godzilla."

"Instead of scared, we can ask people to be prepared," Columbia's Ehsan said