War, Interest Rates, Insurance Can’t Stop Fresno County Real Estate Investment

Even as the world deals with war, the country deals with high interest rates, and the state faces an ongoing insurance crisis, experts say that in Fresno County the real estate world has adapted to these conditions, finding opportunities to make money.

On Thursday, the Fresno County Economic Development Corporation hosted its 2026 Real Estate Forecast, bringing together brokers and experts to discuss homes, offices, retail, industrial, ag, and investment properties.

John Kourafas, commercial investment advisor with the Visintainer Group, said investors on the sidelines have adapted to the current interest rates, which have hung around the 6% range for almost two years. They’ve found opportunities as real estate values have come down.

Real estate transactions increased by 52% in 2025, with several large deals, he said.

“I think that people are finding they can do better deals in the Valley than they can in core markets like San Francisco or L.A. or even across the country,” Kourafas told GV Wire. “It’s the consistency. I know there’s headwinds right now with everything going on globally, but there’s always some sort of a headwind.”

Declining Property Values Reinvigorating Investment

In 2025, Fresno County had 79 major real estate transactions totaling more than $400 million in sales volume. That beats 2024’s 52 transactions that stayed below $150 million.

Kourafas attributed that interest to lenders wanting to put money into real estate. The decline of property values has made office, retail, and industrial investments viable, and even if 10-year Treasury yields — where commercial lenders peg their rates — remain sticky, banks may be willing to cut rates on their end, he said.

Kourafas gave the example of the Cedar Tree Shopping Center at Herndon and Cedar avenues, now currently in escrow after receiving seven offers on the center, both local and abroad.

“Lenders from all around have been coming into this year saying they really want to increase what’s called their allocations, which means that they want to lend more money,” Kourafas said. “The only way they can do that is to get more deals.”

‘Musical Chairs’ of Retail Shops: Orlando

Despite lenders eager to activate money, realities on the ground stymie some velocity. Retail rents are the highest they’ve ever been, said Rachel Orlando, senior vice president with Retail California.

At the same time, the California insurance market is driving up those costs. With insurers leaving the Golden State altogether, coverage rates have gone up nearly 30%, she said.

Rents for office have also been driven up by insurance costs, as well as inflation and labor costs, said Tony Cortopassi, managing director with Cushman & Wakefield.

Orlando expects that problem in retail space to come to a head in the next 12 months as landlords and tenants have to hash out deals, she said.

Besides the insurance increases, Orlando expects retail to maintain similar volumes from 2025, though popular retail will be a “musical chairs” of new stores.

Discount retailers such as Nordstrom consistently drive investment, she said. A new Burlington is good news for big-box space in Fresno, which is having a revival. 99 Cents Only has signed leases in big spaces, and plans for a Dick’s House of Sport at Fashion Fair Mall continue to move forward.

Property owners have seen the value of “med-tail” such as a spa center bringing people to shopping centers for more than just shopping. That’s been popular in major markets and is now making its way to Fresno.

“They want to be involved in the retail center so they can have moms and that female-friendly environment, and they can pop in for a service versus going to a medical facility,” Orlando said.

‘How’s Inventory?’: Homebuyer’s Biggest Question

Building new homes is more than a matter of finding developable land, it’s also how fast they can build in those areas, said Corine Demetreos, vice president of D.R. Horton’s Central Valley Division.

How long it takes to transform raw land into developable property can take anywhere from 18 to 36 months, she said, with Reedley, Bakersfield, and Tulare County cities moving the fastest.

“We’re really looking for cities to streamline the entitlement process to help us build faster,” she said during the presentation.

Available inventory has become the top question for homebuyers, said Jason Farris, president of the Fresno Association of Realtors.

He said that’s replaced the basic “how’s the market?” question.

A house for sale can expect to stay almost twice as long on the market compared to last year — 59 days in January versus 33 days in January 2025.

With a 20% increase in active listings, buyers can take their time to evaluate a property, and that’s something a seller will have to get used to, Farris said.

Jeff Kim, multifamily specialist with Colliers International, echoed Kourafas’ sentiments about normalizing interest rates. Despite increases in vacancy rates (up .3% year-over-year) and slowing rent growth, sales volume doubled in 2025 compared to 2024. Kim attributed that to investors figuring out how to make money in the current environment

“We’re starting to see things transition back to historic norms,” Kim said.

What’s It Going to Take to Get Homes Under 400k: Demetreos

With half of people nationally who can’t afford a home that costs $300,000, Demetreos said she’s “missing a market.”

She said getting homes below $400,000 will take creative solutions and that people will have to realize that not everyone needs a “McMansion.”

Across the state, Fresno remains one of the few havens for young people, Farris said.

The median sales price in L.A. is $500,000 more than in Fresno while that same gap exceeds $1 million in San Francisco, he said.

“We are the last real affordable place in California,” Farris said.

Fresno has remained largely inoculated from Sacramento legislation, said Matthew Hargrove, president and CEO of the California Business Properties Association.

While most people can think of less than a handful of laws to make their lives easier, during each two-year legislative cycle lawmakers on average come up with 5,000 new laws.

Those laws affect doing business.

He said in L.A., a tenant improvement permit can take 18 months. A new mileage mitigation calculation called VMT set to take effect later this year has some San Diego experts estimating cost increases of an additional $250,000 per door, he said.

By 2045, the state will ban natural gas in new home construction, and home builders are already adapting to that law.

“Fresno is one of the last vestiges in California where you’re acting normal,” Hargrove said.

The post War, Interest Rates, Insurance Can’t Stop Fresno County Real Estate Investment appeared first on GV Wire.