Democrats are warning their party not to get too bullish on House gains

Senior Democrats are tempering their expectations about how big of a House majority they might win, as both parties see a tightening battlefield.

The latest rounds of internal polling from both parties from the middle of October show GOP candidates gaining ground in the Midwest and narrowing races in a key Colorado seat and elsewhere, according to six people familiar with the data who were granted anonymity to discuss it. Republicans’ deluge of money also seems to be helping shore up some imperiled Florida seats even as they face serious problems in North Carolina and Texas. The GOP gerrymandered those three states in their favor in the Trump-induced round of redistricting following the 2024 election.

Now, Democrats on Capitol Hill are starting to privately caution some of their bolder colleagues that it seems very possible they don’t hit the 235-seat height of their majority following the 2018 elections, according to one of those people and two others with direct knowledge of the conversations.

“I don’t think anyone ever believed we were going to have 2018 numbers,” one House Democrat said. “I honestly think the results are going to be all over the place. Caution seems smart to me. But, optimistic is also a good place to be.”

That’s a notable change from the tune some Democrats were singing just earlier this month: Brooke Butler, political director for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, had predicted that their majority this cycle could reach 240 seats. “Anywhere between 218 and 240 feels very viable,” she told POLITICO earlier this month in announcing the DCCC’s plans to target new districts deep in GOP territory.

Some Democrats feel their own internal polling is over-indexing their strength in some cases, according to two other operatives working on competitive races, granted anonymity to speak candidly. But the party is still confident they’ll win the majority and are eager to keep Republicans spending to defend once-safe red seats.

Before the all-out GOP panic started in late September and boosted many Democrats’ bullishness, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries predicted House Democrats would win 220 seats.

“Given the mountain of outside, billionaire-backed cash being dropped in competitive House races across the country and the seemingly never-ending schemes by Republicans to try to rig the midterms — we’ve always known that the majority-making races would come down to the wire,” DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton said in a statement. “We’re clear-eyed that House Democrats are poised to win the majority, and it will take running flat out until Election Day.”

Still, the tightening in the core House battleground districts that were identified as battlegrounds early on means a slew of those races are currently within the margin of error, or Republicans in some cases are running just a few points behind, according to the six people with knowledge of the internal Democratic and GOP polling. That includes the race for Michigan’s 7th District between GOP Rep. Tom Barrett and Democrat William Lawrence.

Another marquee battleground in Wisconsin’s 3rd District has tightened a few points since last month, as Republicans pour in millions of dollars more in ad spending. Democrat Rebecca Cooke is running 1 percentage point ahead of GOP Rep. Derrick Van Orden in a multi-candidate vote, 47% to 46%, according to an internal Cooke campaign poll from mid-October obtained by POLITICO. "Wisconsin is always close and hard-fought — especially in a district Trump won decisively,” a Cooke campaign aide said. “Our working class message is connecting, but we need the resources to make sure it's heard."

In Iowa, Republicans still feel they’re likely to lose Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks 1st District. But they’re cautiously optimistic about Rep. Zach Nunn in Iowa’s 3rd district and Joe Mitchell in Iowa’s open 2nd District, where President Donald Trump is set to hold a rally on Nov. 1.

“Any Republican in Iowa in a neck and neck race ends up winning on Election Day,” said one GOP operative working on House races, who was granted anonymity to discuss the landscape.

Top GOP staff and officials still believe it’s more likely than not that they lose the House majority, but they’re hopeful they can limit Democrats’ margin.

The new polling is helping them see they might avoid some of the deep hemorrhaging, especially in the Midwest, that they feared in late September and earlier this month. That region has been hit hardest by Trump’s tariff agenda and rising diesel costs resulting from an unpopular Iran war — something the White House has seemed to acknowledge, with Trump promising $8 billion to farmers hurting from high fuel prices.

“Democrats spent months measuring the drapes, and now they’re scrambling to lower expectations before a single race is called,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Mike Marinella said. “Republicans have been laser-focused since day one and built our operation to win the races that will get us to 218.”

Trump is also personally working to shore up at-risk Republicans in his home state of Florida with a visit Friday to rally GOP voters.

Republicans in the last few days started to pile money into a series of once-safe GOP seats there, including Rep. Anna Paulina Luna’s Gulf Coast seat. Republicans are also racing to save several open seats, despite redrawing the districts in their favor, where the GOP is struggling. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise is in South Florida to boost GOP Rep. Maria Salazar on Friday and campaigned on Thursday for Republican Dan Green in the redrawn seat against Rep. Darren Soto, who should be toast under the GOP gerrymander in most political environments.

Senior Republicans believe the money bomb is starting to help shore up some Florida seats, though they still have more work to do.

South Texas remains one of the worst spots on the map for House Republicans, after the top House GOP super PAC cut off spending for one of their star recruits — Tano Tijerina, who is challenging Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar — to help other imperiled GOP candidates. Some at-risk Republicans in the area, like Rep. Monica De La Cruz, should’ve been safe in a recently redrawn seat.

In North Carolina, Republicans are facing some dire fallout across House seats after the implosion of Republican Michael Whatley’s Senate campaign and top Senate GOP groups cutting off spending in the state. Top House GOP groups and Trump’s political operation have already cut off spending in North Carolina’s open 11th District, where Democrat Jamie Ager is challenging Republican Jennifer Balkcom.